IARPG-OPS-2 · 2.0.4-wip Intelligence operations design system Fictional missions · neutral authorities
IARPG.COM INTELLIGENCE AGENT ROLE PLAYING GAME
Work in progress IARPG-OPS-2 2.0.4-wip

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EVID-02CurrentEvidence & AnalysisPublished WIP

Provenance, Confidence, and Corroboration

Confidence is earned through source context, provenance, independence, consistency, and discriminating evidence.

Purpose

What this record standardizes.

Keep observations, reports, interpretations, hypotheses, assessments, and decisions distinct and traceable.

Rationale

A reviewable intelligence game requires uncertainty and contradiction to survive the user interface rather than being flattened into a single truth score.

Normative requirements

What conforming implementations must, should, and may do.

01
MUSTrequired for conformance

Every material claim carry provenance, source type, acquisition time, confidence, and reason codes.

02
MUSTrequired for conformance

Independent corroboration be required for mission-defined irreversible actions.

03
SHOULDrecommended unless a documented reason applies

Confidence changes reference the specific evidence or contradiction responsible for the update.

04
MAYoptional supported behavior

Mission authors define different evidence thresholds for public attribution, operational action, and internal warning.

Game interaction mapping

What players and interfaces do.

01Create evidence node
02Link support or contradiction
03Compare hypotheses
04Publish assessment
CollectValidateDeliverDebrief

Data contract

Inputs and outputs.

Inputs

  • Observations
  • Source reports
  • Documents
  • Sensor events

Outputs

  • Hypotheses
  • Assessment
  • Decision support
  • Evidence packet

State contract

Allowed or expected transitions.

FromEventTo
not-applicablerecord requirement evaluatedconforming-or-documented-exception

Evidence and provenance

Review requirements for claims and consequential state.

  • The implementation records the source, UTC event time, mission identifier, responsible role, and reason code for consequential state changes.
  • Generated dialogue and player interpretation are not stored as authoritative facts without a separate verification event.

User-interface requirements

How the requirement must appear at the point of use.

  • Show the record code and requirement level at the point of use.
  • Expose the reason for blocked, failed, escalated, or irreversible actions.
  • Provide a direct link to the canonical standard and machine-readable record.

Accessibility requirements

Equivalent access to essential information and controls.

  • Essential information is available without reliance on color, audio, motion, or a VR-only gesture.
  • Keyboard, screen-reader, reduced-motion, seated-play, and high-contrast equivalents are documented where the interaction applies.

Telemetry events

Minimum event records for implementation review.

standard.provenance-confidence-and-corroboration.evaluated

Required fields:

event_idtimestamp_utcmission_idrecord_coderesultreason_code

Abuse and exploit cases

What the implementation must anticipate.

  1. A participant attempts to omit required context so another role accepts a misleading task.
  2. A generated or user-authored statement is presented as server-authoritative without verification.
  3. A consequential state transition occurs without a durable reason code.

Failure and recovery

Fail-closed behavior and recovery path.

FAILURE

Fail closed for irreversible or settlement-bearing actions. Preserve the current state, show the missing requirement, and allow correction or documented exception review.

RECOVERY

Restore from the last authoritative event, retain the rejected transition in the audit log, and require a new validated event before continuing.

Example implementation

A concise fictional game implementation.

A mission interface evaluates EVID-02 before advancing the relevant state and writes the result to the local event log with a UTC timestamp and reason code.

Open complete mission examples →

Related records and examples

Supporting research

Deep links into complete canonical reports.

Revision history

Published changes to this record.

1.0.02026-07-19 UTC

Initial IARPG-OPS-1 publication.

2.0.1-wip2026-07-19 UTC

Expanded for IARPG-OPS-2 workbench, simulation, evidence, accessibility, telemetry, and machine-readable publication.

2.0.2-wip2026-07-19T16:42:07Z UTC

2.0.3-wip2026-07-19T18:45:50Z UTC

Reviewed for integrity-aware package verification, merge, multi-role replay, custody comparison, batch review, backup, publication preview, and release-promotion workflows.

2.0.4-wip2026-07-20T12:04:07Z UTC

Reviewed for canonicalization, round-trip portability, recovery, provenance, compatibility, accessibility, hosting evidence, and stable-promotion gates.

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