{
  "code": "EVID-02",
  "slug": "provenance-confidence-and-corroboration",
  "title": "Provenance, Confidence, and Corroboration",
  "category": "Evidence & Analysis",
  "status": "Current",
  "version": "2.0.4-wip",
  "summary": "Confidence is earned through source context, provenance, independence, consistency, and discriminating evidence.",
  "keywords": [
    "provenance",
    "confidence",
    "corroboration",
    "independence",
    "chain of custody",
    "reason codes"
  ],
  "mission_phases": [
    "Collect",
    "Validate",
    "Deliver",
    "Debrief"
  ],
  "canonical": "https://iarpg.com/standard/provenance-confidence-and-corroboration",
  "json": "https://iarpg.com/records/provenance-confidence-and-corroboration.json",
  "requirements": [
    {
      "level": "MUST",
      "text": "Every material claim carry provenance, source type, acquisition time, confidence, and reason codes."
    },
    {
      "level": "MUST",
      "text": "Independent corroboration be required for mission-defined irreversible actions."
    },
    {
      "level": "SHOULD",
      "text": "Confidence changes reference the specific evidence or contradiction responsible for the update."
    },
    {
      "level": "MAY",
      "text": "Mission authors define different evidence thresholds for public attribution, operational action, and internal warning."
    }
  ],
  "research": [
    {
      "label": "Recommended warrant architecture",
      "href": "/docs/report/justice-system-and-warrant-escalation-for-rogue-intelligence#recommended-warrant-architecture",
      "note": "Severity and evidentiary certainty are separate axes."
    },
    {
      "label": "Mission verification guidelines",
      "href": "/docs/report/hallucinated-ai-quest-design-in-vr-mmorpgs#mitigation-strategies-and-design-guidelines",
      "note": "Verification tools and intentional reliability signals."
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    "observation-report-interpretation-and-hypothesis",
    "competing-hypotheses-and-assessment",
    "synthetic-source-disclosure-and-authority"
  ],
  "release": "IARPG-OPS-2",
  "revised_utc": "2026-07-20T12:04:07Z",
  "purpose": "Keep observations, reports, interpretations, hypotheses, assessments, and decisions distinct and traceable.",
  "rationale": "A reviewable intelligence game requires uncertainty and contradiction to survive the user interface rather than being flattened into a single truth score.",
  "game_interaction": [
    "Create evidence node",
    "Link support or contradiction",
    "Compare hypotheses",
    "Publish assessment"
  ],
  "inputs": [
    "Observations",
    "Source reports",
    "Documents",
    "Sensor events"
  ],
  "outputs": [
    "Hypotheses",
    "Assessment",
    "Decision support",
    "Evidence packet"
  ],
  "state_transitions": [
    {
      "from": "not-applicable",
      "event": "record requirement evaluated",
      "to": "conforming-or-documented-exception"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_and_provenance": [
    "The implementation records the source, UTC event time, mission identifier, responsible role, and reason code for consequential state changes.",
    "Generated dialogue and player interpretation are not stored as authoritative facts without a separate verification event."
  ],
  "ui_requirements": [
    "Show the record code and requirement level at the point of use.",
    "Expose the reason for blocked, failed, escalated, or irreversible actions.",
    "Provide a direct link to the canonical standard and machine-readable record."
  ],
  "accessibility_requirements": [
    "Essential information is available without reliance on color, audio, motion, or a VR-only gesture.",
    "Keyboard, screen-reader, reduced-motion, seated-play, and high-contrast equivalents are documented where the interaction applies."
  ],
  "telemetry_events": [
    {
      "name": "standard.provenance-confidence-and-corroboration.evaluated",
      "required_fields": [
        "event_id",
        "timestamp_utc",
        "mission_id",
        "record_code",
        "result",
        "reason_code"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "abuse_and_exploit_cases": [
    "A participant attempts to omit required context so another role accepts a misleading task.",
    "A generated or user-authored statement is presented as server-authoritative without verification.",
    "A consequential state transition occurs without a durable reason code."
  ],
  "failure_behavior": "Fail closed for irreversible or settlement-bearing actions. Preserve the current state, show the missing requirement, and allow correction or documented exception review.",
  "recovery_behavior": "Restore from the last authoritative event, retain the rejected transition in the audit log, and require a new validated event before continuing.",
  "example_implementation": "A mission interface evaluates EVID-02 before advancing the relevant state and writes the result to the local event log with a UTC timestamp and reason code.",
  "roles": [
    "Operative",
    "Handler",
    "Intelligence Analyst"
  ],
  "authority_types": [
    "Civil administration",
    "Military command",
    "Commercial intelligence service",
    "International verification body",
    "Scientific consortium",
    "Independent investigative network"
  ],
  "collection_disciplines": [],
  "interaction_types": [
    "Create evidence node",
    "Link support or contradiction",
    "Compare hypotheses"
  ],
  "evidence_requirement": "Reviewable provenance required",
  "conformance_level": "Level B — Playable",
  "implementation_maturity": "Published WIP",
  "related_examples": [
    "port-access-anomaly-investigation"
  ],
  "revision_history": [
    {
      "version": "1.0.0",
      "date_utc": "2026-07-19",
      "note": "Initial IARPG-OPS-1 publication."
    },
    {
      "version": "2.0.1-wip",
      "date_utc": "2026-07-19",
      "note": "Expanded for IARPG-OPS-2 workbench, simulation, evidence, accessibility, telemetry, and machine-readable publication."
    },
    {
      "version": "2.0.2-wip",
      "date_utc": "2026-07-19T16:42:07Z",
      "change": "Reviewed for operation-package lifecycle compatibility and local tool integration."
    },
    {
      "version": "2.0.3-wip",
      "date_utc": "2026-07-19T18:45:50Z",
      "note": "Reviewed for integrity-aware package verification, merge, multi-role replay, custody comparison, batch review, backup, publication preview, and release-promotion workflows."
    },
    {
      "version": "2.0.4-wip",
      "date_utc": "2026-07-20T12:04:07Z",
      "note": "Reviewed for canonicalization, round-trip portability, recovery, provenance, compatibility, accessibility, hosting evidence, and stable-promotion gates."
    }
  ]
}