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IARPG-MSN-004 · Level D — Simulatable

Cross-Border Ceasefire Verification

Determine whether observed movement violates the ceasefire, reflects approved rotation, or is a deception masking unrelated activity.

Authority
Meridian Joint Defense Assessment Cell
Customer
Joint operations commander
Jurisdiction
Agreed monitoring corridor
Release
IARPG-OPS-2

Human-readable brief

Direction and mandate

Authority
Meridian Joint Defense Assessment Cell
Customer
Joint operations commander
Mandate
Collect and assess information within the declared fictional jurisdiction and report uncertainty without forcing a preferred conclusion.
Jurisdiction
Agreed monitoring corridor
Intelligence requirement
Determine whether observed movement violates the ceasefire, reflects approved rotation, or is a deception masking unrelated activity.
Evidence threshold
A violation finding requires time-correlated evidence from monitoring and at least one independent observation.
Extraction plan
Withdraw through the inspection corridor; do not pursue beyond the agreed jurisdiction.
Debrief deliverable
An assessment that separates observation, source report, interpretation, hypothesis, confidence, dissent, source impact, cover impact, and follow-on requirements.

Known facts

  • A triggering anomaly or request has been logged.
  • The authority has access to some but not all relevant records.
  • At least two explanations remain plausible.

Assumptions

  • Current system clocks are synchronized within the published tolerance.
  • Declared access records have not yet been proven complete.

Competing hypotheses

  • Administrative or technical failure
  • Authorized but poorly documented activity
  • Deliberate disclosure or manipulation
  • Fabricated evidence intended to redirect attention

Role contract

Roles and information asymmetry

ASSIGNED

Operative

  • Role-specific tasking
  • Authorized evidence subset
ASSIGNED

Technical Operator

  • Role-specific tasking
  • Authorized evidence subset
ASSIGNED

Intelligence Analyst

  • Role-specific tasking
  • Authorized evidence subset
ASSIGNED

Liaison Officer

  • Role-specific tasking
  • Authorized evidence subset

Collection and interaction

What the players do

Collection plan

  • Imagery review
  • Sensor event comparison
  • Inspection patrol
  • Partner reporting

Player interactions

  • Review tasking
  • Establish access
  • Collect evidence
  • Mark contradiction
  • Request corroboration
  • Choose continue, convert, or abort
  • Complete extraction and debrief

Compromise and abort

  • Unexpected access challenge
  • Unexplained route change
  • Source behavior inconsistent with prior handling
  • Evidence item lacking provenance
  • Role handoff not acknowledged
  • Abort: Cover integrity below 35
  • Abort: Source safety cannot be maintained
  • Abort: Jurisdiction is exceeded
  • Abort: Required evidence custody cannot be preserved

Evidence Packet JSON

EVP-004

OBSERVATION

EV-001

Origin: player observation

Provenance: role event log

OBSERVED
SOURCE REPORT

EV-002

Origin: declared source

Provenance: source handling record

SOURCE_CLAIM
CONTRADICTION

EV-003

Origin: analytic comparison

Provenance: EV-001,EV-002

CONTRADICTION
Download complete mission package ↗

Simulation configuration

Deterministic state contract

TaskPlanAccessCollectValidateDeliverExtractDebrief

Seed: ceasefire-verification

Expected terminal states: Debrief, Abort, Compromise

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Supporting standards

Canonical implementation records

Full reports

Research lineage and limitations

Connected tools and standards

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