iarpg.com operations channel online Intelligence Agent Role Playing Game No canonical heroes or villains

Evidence and analysis

The record is not
the conclusion.

IARPG dossiers preserve the difference between what was observed, what a source reported, what the cell inferred, which hypotheses remain plausible, and what the authority can responsibly decide.

Evidence types

Do not collapse
five different statements.

A source may accurately report what they believe and still be wrong about the underlying event. An observation may be genuine and deliberately staged. An assessment may be useful while still containing uncertainty.

OBSERVATION

What was directly detected

A sight, sound, record, signal, object, interaction, or server-owned event with time and place.

SOURCE REPORT

What another actor said

Reporting tied to source identity, access, motive, reliability history, and the conditions of collection.

INTERPRETATION

What the evidence may indicate

A reasoned explanation that remains distinguishable from the underlying observation or report.

HYPOTHESIS

A testable explanation

One of several competing models with supporting, contradicting, missing, and diagnostic evidence.

ASSESSMENT

The judgment delivered to a customer

A concise answer with confidence, alternatives, implications, gaps, and collection recommendations.

DECISION

What the authority chooses to do

The customer owns the decision; the intelligence product explains what is known and uncertain.

Provenance chain

Every claim carries
its path into the dossier.

The cell can inspect where a statement came from, how it changed, who handled it, and what corroborated it.

Server-owned records preserve timestamps, source references, collection method, handling events, transformations, redactions, confidence, and reversals. Corrections append a new record instead of silently rewriting history.

01COLLECTED2026-07-19 03:16:40 UTC
02HANDLEDChain of custody maintained
03CORRELATEDCompared with two independent sources
04ASSESSEDModerate confidence; one major gap
05BRIEFEDCustomer received reason codes

Assessment example

The route packet was probably fabricated.

Moderate confidence.

The revision lineage conflicts with the alleged origin, two access records are inconsistent with the proposed insider timeline, and the purge outcome would benefit a concealed third authority. Direct evidence of the fabricator remains absent.

Dossier habit

Irreversible action needs
more than narrative confidence.

The game rewards players who expose uncertainty, preserve dissent, request diagnostic collection, and explain why the assessment changed. A confident voice is not a substitute for provenance.

Return to the operation cycle

Connected tools and standards

Explore the wider AI ecosystem.