---
uai: "1.0"
type: current-domain-memory
status: active
stable_id: iarpg-planetary-systems-memory
project: iarpg.com
release: IARPG-OPS-2
version: "2.0.21-wip"
review_state: current-until-superseded
---

# Planetary Systems and Scenario Modeling

## Current Doctrine

- **Verified:** eight user-supplied planetary-simulation and IARPA-related Markdown sources are individually preserved under `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/`. Their current reusable guidance lives in eight canonical `#reviewed-synthesis` sections under `docs/long-term-memory/reports/`. Evidence: [integration findings](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/planetary-systems-research-integration-and-scenario-modeling-report.md#findings).
- **Verified:** `/scenario-modeling` publishes five model families—footprint, propagation, agent and network, event-sourced, and comparative—plus required model-card fields, content applications, attribution correction, and hard safety rules. Evidence: [public implementation](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/planetary-systems-research-integration-and-scenario-modeling-report.md#executive-summary).
- **Verified:** `planetary-systems-review-register.json` contains 48 bounded publication dispositions across eight reports. `scenario-modeling-methods.json` is the machine-readable current method.
- **Verified:** IARPA means **Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity**. IARPG has no affiliation, sponsorship, endorsement, partnership, or official program relationship with IARPA. The fictional expansion found in the supplied sources is rejected for public reuse.
- **Truth boundary:** IARPG uses the reports to improve explanatory content, world-system consequences, campaign history, uncertainty, accessibility, and evidence handling. The site is not building a planetary simulation game, digital twin, live geopolitical forecast, epidemiological service, nuclear-effects calculator, or real-world targeting system.

## Reusable Model Families

1. **Footprint or snapshot:** one bounded event state; show inputs, boundaries, exclusions, uncertainty, and accessible alternatives.
2. **Propagation or compartment:** state through time; show compartments, transition rules, timing, interventions, and sensitivity.
3. **Agent and network:** local rules and emergent effects; show actor categories, edge rules, calibration, false-positive risks, and anti-profiling limits.
4. **Event-sourced branch:** ordered history, replay, correction, and reversal; preserve prior state and reason codes.
5. **Comparative or ensemble:** ranges and disagreement; show scenario definitions, parameter ranges, distribution summaries, and unresolved uncertainty.

## Safe Reuse Routes

- [Geospatial propagation and cascades](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/geospatial-propagation-and-cascade-simulation-patterns.md#reviewed-synthesis)
- [Agent and compartment models](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/agent-based-and-compartmental-modeling-for-scenario-literacy.md#reviewed-synthesis)
- [Impact modeling and risk communication](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/geospatial-impact-modeling-and-risk-communication.md#reviewed-synthesis)
- [Event-sourced planetary architecture](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/event-sourced-planetary-systems-architecture.md#reviewed-synthesis)
- [Deterministic and generative boundaries](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/deterministic-and-generative-system-boundaries.md#reviewed-synthesis)
- [State domains and structured AI](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/planetary-state-domains-and-structured-ai-orchestration.md#reviewed-synthesis)
- [Observation and feedback design](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/planetary-systems-observation-and-feedback-design.md#reviewed-synthesis)
- [Simulation reference architecture](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/planetary-simulation-reference-architecture.md#reviewed-synthesis)

## Hard Boundaries

- Do not reproduce weapons-effect equations, casualty estimates, fallout models, attack code, exploit procedures, target optimization, or deployment guidance.
- Do not publish individualized health prediction, diagnosis, treatment, or public-health policy recommendations from these reports.
- Do not turn identity, nationality, religion, diagnosis, disability, political belief, or demographic category into a risk, threat, recruitability, or targetability proxy.
- Do not present a map, globe, animation, or dashboard as validation by itself.
- Do not allow generative output to become authoritative mission, evidence, relationship, permission, reward, sanction, or factual state.

## Next Useful Action

Retain the five model families and model-card boundary while the next release prioritizes a browser-local Country Context Composer. Any later scenario-card tool must remain fictional, evidence-bounded, reversible, accessible, and prohibited from becoming a medical, weapons, cyberattack, targeting, or real-world prediction engine.

## World Systems and Scenario Modeling

- Crisis analysis now connects footprint, propagation, agent/network, event-sourced, and comparative models to authority, domestic response, regional coordination, dependencies, evidence quality, affected communities, correction, and recovery.
- A model output is not an observation or prediction.
- Do not publish weapons effects, casualty estimation, individualized medical forecasts, cyberattack tools, infrastructure attack maps, or targeting systems.
- Evidence: [crisis-cascade synthesis](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/crisis-cascades-resilience-and-recovery.md#reviewed-synthesis) and [integration findings](../docs/long-term-memory/reports/world-systems-governance-resilience-and-evidence-integration-report.md#8-crisis-models-are-conditional-tools-not-predictions).