# Planetary Systems Research Integration and Scenario Modeling Report

## Status

Current implementation report for IARPG-OPS-2 2.0.18-wip. The release remains work in progress.

## Purpose

Document how eight user-supplied planetary-simulation and IARPA-related research reports were preserved, reviewed, bounded, and translated into safer, useful IARPG content without turning iarpg.com into a planetary simulation game, weapons-effects calculator, epidemiological forecasting service, digital twin, or live geopolitical prediction system.

## Scope

This report covers source intake, canonical report creation, attribution correction, public-content integration, machine-readable modeling records, active `.uai` memory, durable-memory routing, discovery regeneration, validation, and release packaging for the 2.0.18-wip research-integration round.

## Executive Summary

Eight Markdown sources are preserved individually beneath `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/`. Each source maps to one canonical reviewed-with-limitations report beneath `docs/long-term-memory/reports/`. The canonical reports retain useful systems-thinking concepts while bounding or rejecting unsafe, unsupported, stale, overly certain, or falsely attributed material.

The public result is `/scenario-modeling`, a compact explanatory publication covering five model families: footprint, propagation, agent and network, event-sourced, and comparative or ensemble. It requires model cards, uncertainty, sensitivity, verification, validation, accessible alternatives, affected-community review, correction history, and explicit statements of unsupported interpretation.

The supplied reports repeatedly expanded “IARPA” as a fictional planetary-atlas name. Current publication corrects that attribution: IARPA is the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. IARPG is not affiliated with, sponsored by, endorsed by, or an official program of IARPA. Public program references require current verification against official agency material.

The integration expands content across the homepage, Start Here, Operational Geography, Campaign State Console, Campaign Branch Archive, Editorial Method, Research Archive, Answer Center, Glossary, search, sitemap, machine records, active memory, and durable-memory catalogs. It does not implement a planetary game engine or reproduce weapons-effect equations, casualty calculators, medical forecasts, target optimization, cyberattack procedures, or other actionable harmful material.

## Evidence Reviewed

### Supplied sources

1. `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/AI Takeover Simulation Map.md`
2. `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/Building Epidemiological Models.md`
3. `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/Building a NUKEMAP Clone.md`
4. `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/IARPA SimEarth Game Architecture part 2.md`
5. `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/IARPA Simulation Game Architecture.md`
6. `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/IARPA SimEarth Game Architecture.md`
7. `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/IARPA Sim Earth Game Design.md`
8. `docs/source-files/planetary-systems-and-scenario-modeling/Planetary Simulation Game Architecture.md`

### Canonical reviewed reports

1. [Geospatial Propagation and Cascade Simulation Patterns](geospatial-propagation-and-cascade-simulation-patterns.md#reviewed-synthesis)
2. [Agent-Based and Compartmental Modeling for Scenario Literacy](agent-based-and-compartmental-modeling-for-scenario-literacy.md#reviewed-synthesis)
3. [Geospatial Impact Modeling and Risk Communication](geospatial-impact-modeling-and-risk-communication.md#reviewed-synthesis)
4. [Event-Sourced Planetary Systems Architecture](event-sourced-planetary-systems-architecture.md#reviewed-synthesis)
5. [Deterministic and Generative System Boundaries](deterministic-and-generative-system-boundaries.md#reviewed-synthesis)
6. [Planetary State Domains and Structured AI Orchestration](planetary-state-domains-and-structured-ai-orchestration.md#reviewed-synthesis)
7. [Planetary Systems Observation and Feedback Design](planetary-systems-observation-and-feedback-design.md#reviewed-synthesis)
8. [Planetary Simulation Reference Architecture](planetary-simulation-reference-architecture.md#reviewed-synthesis)

### Repository evidence

- `planetary-systems-review-register.json` and its schema
- `scenario-modeling-methods.json` and its schema
- `/scenario-modeling`
- `.uai/planetary-systems.uai`
- `.uai/long-term-memory.uai`
- `docs/source-files/manifest.json`
- `docs/manifest.json`
- search, sitemap, feed, answer, glossary, checksum, browser, host, accessibility, and release-validation evidence

## Findings

### 1. Useful content is methodological, not a new product claim

The strongest reusable ideas concern choosing a model to fit a question, separating instantaneous footprints from time-stepped propagation, distinguishing local-agent behavior from aggregate compartments, preserving state through event history, comparing multiple branches, communicating uncertainty, and validating outputs for a declared purpose.

These ideas deepen IARPG’s fictional missions, alliance dynamics, infrastructure dependencies, evidence flows, logistics, information environments, affected-community consequences, correction paths, and campaign history. They do not justify a claim that IARPG currently implements a planetary simulator.

### 2. Five model families provide a clearer public vocabulary

The public method now distinguishes:

- **Footprint or snapshot models** for a bounded event state.
- **Propagation or compartment models** for state movement through time.
- **Agent and network models** for local rules and emergent system behavior.
- **Event-sourced branch models** for history, replay, correction, and reversal.
- **Comparative or ensemble models** for ranges, disagreement, and sensitivity.

Each model family states what it is best for, what it must expose, and what it must not be used to infer.

### 3. Model credibility requires more than visual polish

A map, globe, animation, or dashboard is not validation. Every current scenario publication should expose purpose, state variables, data, assumptions, transition rules, outputs, uncertainty, sensitivity, verification, validation, rights implications, affected communities, accessibility alternatives, correction history, and unsupported interpretations.

### 4. Deterministic state must remain authoritative

Generative systems may draft narrative or propose bounded possibilities, but they may not become the authority for mission truth, evidence status, relationship state, permissions, completion, rewards, sanctions, or geopolitical claims. Structured proposals must be validated before they can alter authoritative fictional state.

### 5. Attribution needed explicit correction

The supplied sources used “Integrated Artificial Reality Planetary Atlas” as an expansion of IARPA. Current publication rejects that attribution. The official agency name is Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. References to its public programs are contextual research only and do not establish affiliation or an official planetary-simulation program.

### 6. High-risk implementation detail is not reused publicly

The preserved sources include detailed nuclear-effects and cyberattack implementation material. Current canonical synthesis does not reproduce equations, casualty estimation, fallout modeling, target selection, attack code, exploitation procedures, or deployment guidance. The reusable content is limited to safe geospatial architecture, model credibility, uncertainty, accessibility, and risk-communication lessons.

### 7. The split-memory architecture remains intact

`.uai/` remains active first-load memory. The new `planetary-systems.uai` summarizes current reuse rules and deep-links to the eight reviewed syntheses and this report. Durable report bodies remain under `docs/long-term-memory/reports/`. The long-term ledger remains pointer-only.

## Decisions or Recommendations

1. Keep `/scenario-modeling` explanatory and content-oriented rather than turning it into a public prediction or calculator interface.
2. Require a model card before any future scenario visualization is treated as publishable.
3. Prefer comparative scenarios and sensitivity ranges over a single inevitable result.
4. Keep real-world claims dated, sourced, and separated from fictional outputs.
5. Preserve accessible table and narrative alternatives for every future map, chart, network, or globe.
6. Never use nationality, religion, diagnosis, disability, political identity, or demographic identity as a proxy for dangerousness, recruitability, or targetability.
7. Maintain the hard prohibition on public weapons-effect, casualty, targeting, individualized medical, and operational cyber calculators.
8. Re-check all current IARPA program references against official sources before publication.
9. Use the next cycle to build a browser-local **Scenario Card Composer**, not a simulation engine: visitors should be able to declare a fictional question, choose a model family, record assumptions and uncertainty, name affected communities and safeguards, and export a transparent model card.

## Risks and Limitations

- The eight supplied sources contain external factual and technical claims that were not exhaustively verified sentence by sentence.
- Review dispositions control current repository reuse; they do not certify the preserved source prose.
- The public method improves transparency but does not prove model accuracy, entertainment value, human comprehension, or real-world forecasting skill.
- Local validation does not establish production-host behavior, field performance, native Firefox behavior, native screen-reader speech output, search indexing, or generative-citation outcomes.
- Even safe abstract models can be misread as predictions if assumptions and truth boundaries are visually de-emphasized.

## Validation Performed

The release process validates:

- Eight source files, byte sizes, SHA-256 values, collection records, and canonical mappings.
- Eight canonical report templates and `#reviewed-synthesis` anchors.
- Forty-eight unique publication dispositions and the review-register schema.
- Five model families, required model-card fields, content applications, rules, and method schema.
- PHP, JavaScript, Python, JSON, XML, and CSS syntax or parsing.
- Sitemap routes, canonical metadata, structured data, search, answers, glossary, feed, and public machine records.
- UAI deep links, durable backlinks, pointer checksums, public mirrors, documentation links, heading anchors, and secret-pattern scans.
- Sticky-surface, responsive-layout, accessibility-structure, browser-fixture, host-routing, security-header, compression, and delivery-budget checks.
- Flat ZIP structure, absence of nested archives, fresh extraction equality, ZIP integrity, and external SHA-256 verification.

## Memory References

- [Planetary systems hot memory](../../../.uai/planetary-systems.uai#current-doctrine)
- [Current progress](../../../.uai/progress.uai#current-state)
- [Architecture](../../../.uai/architecture.uai#current-architecture)
- [Decisions](../../../.uai/decisions.uai#active-decisions)
- [Research index](../../../.uai/research-index.uai#planetary-systems-research-routes)
- [Source provenance](../../../.uai/source-provenance.uai#planetary-systems-provenance)
- [Test plan](../../../.uai/test-plan.uai#current-test-plan)
- [Long-term pointer ledger](../../../.uai/long-term-memory.uai#pointer-records)

## Related Durable Documents

- [Split-Memory Architecture](../architecture/split-memory-architecture.md#architecture)
- [UAI Memory Organization Report](uai-memory-organization-report.md#executive-summary)
- [Deterministic Alliance Campaign State and Mission Expansion Report](deterministic-alliance-campaign-state-and-mission-expansion-report.md#findings)
- [Deterministic Campaign Branch Comparison and Replay Report](deterministic-campaign-branch-comparison-and-replay-report.md#findings)
- [Alliance, Faction, and Network World-System Integration Report](alliance-faction-and-network-world-system-integration-report.md#findings)
- [Claim-Level Review and Comparative Fairness Audit](claim-level-review-and-comparative-fairness-audit.md#findings)

## Supersession Status

Current for IARPG-OPS-2 2.0.18-wip. Supersede only with a later versioned report that preserves source provenance, the scenario-versus-prediction boundary, IARPA attribution correction, safety restrictions, and bidirectional memory routing.